FLOW Area
December 8, 2010 THE VILLADOM TIMES I • Page 3
Districts to share cost of demographic study
by Frank J. McMahon The Ramapo Indian Hills Board of Education has authorized a regional demographic study by Whitehall Associates of Kinnelon. The regional high school district and each of the three K-8 districts in the FLOW Area (Franklin Lakes, Oakland, and Wyckoff) will share the cost, with each district paying $1,000 toward the $4,000 total expense. According to Whitehall, the “cohort survival method of population projection” will be used as a base for the study. This standard method is accepted by the New Jersey Department of Education. The base projections are modified by the impact of planned and approved residential development, changes in the academic program, and any other factor that would have an impact on the number of students in the district. This type of demographic study requires that a demographic report for each of the districts served by the Ramapo Indian Hills Regional High School District be prepared to include the impact of planned and approved residential development. The only difference between the demographics for the regional district and its sending districts will be that the previous year’s eighth grade enrollment figures will be used for the regional calculations instead of births. Each local school district is projected out 10 years to get the eighth grade figure, but the study will only use the regional district projections for five years. Each district will be treated individually so, in effect, four different demographic studies will be prepared. The enrollment figures from the Fall Survey Report that is prepared by the districts as of Oct. 15 of each year and the birth figures will be obtained from the New Jersey Department of Health and Senior Services. The planned and approved development data will be obtained from the local municipalities’ planning boards. Whitehall’s typical demographic study consists of a set of tables and an accompanying narrative. Each district will have its own characteristics. Therefore, each report is different to a great extent, while the general explanations may remain the same. A decennial population table will be tabulated for each municipality since 1930, and an analysis will be contained in the narrative. There will also be a table showing the preschool data, both by “universe” and actual, as required by the NJDOE, and another table will show the district’s enrollment history wherein the survival ratios are developed. A third table will project the student enrollment for the next five years and it will be the main table designed to be used in conferences and meetings. That table will also display the live births attributed to the municipality for the five years prior to the kindergarten year shown. A line labeled “net development impact” will be used when there is a residential development impact in the district and all the residential developments will be listed in the fourth table. Since there is no way to accurately determine the date of occupancy of these developments, they will be listed as an aggregate line item and added to the final year’s projected enrollment. The fourth table will also show all the planned, approved, and proposed residential developments within the municipality and the individual impact of each. Since each development is a relatively small sample, the aggregate anticipated student population will be used to determine the by-grade impact used in the third table. The fifth table will show the student enrollment projection by grade and by school five years hence. The agreement with Whitehall requires the school district to make administrators and staff, as required, available to the consultants at mutually agreeable times and
places. The school district also agrees to provide relevant data and documents in possession of the district to the consultants upon request and free of cost. Whitehall Associates, Inc. was established in 1986 and is a supplier of professional services to New Jersey public school districts. The firm has prepared demographic studies for over 250 school districts in New Jersey and has worked with over 40 architectural/engineering firms in the state in preparing demographic and/or educational specifications for over $1 billion in school construction. The company works with the New Jersey Department of Education, architects, and bond counsel in assisting districts through the process of facilities construction approvals.
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